1. Gordon Smith's support, generally among Oregon voters and specifically among Oregon conservatives, is "absurdly low" for an incumbent. (TJ dismisses theories that Smith is unbeatable with a derisive fricative.
2. Smith's continued popularity (upper-mid-forties) among Oregon Democrats and independents is "not without worry for Democratic challengers." (You'll notice here that TJ employs litotes
*to hedge his rhetorical bets rather than coming straight out with something un-nuanced like "a strong indication that Democrats and independents have been sampling the local mushrooms again.")