The Simpsons Vote: A clarification of our statistical model

(Note: Blogger's almost certainly going to have a huge increase in traffic tomorrow, so I'm going to try and get some things out today before it crashes. Tomorrow evening I plan to attend some post-election parties by measures and candidates I supported; the polling numbers look good for many or most of them, but there's still the chance that this could be my last chance to be in a room full of happy Democrats for a couple of years.)

A week or two ago, for reasons that are unlikely to become clear again at the moment, I was speculating on how various members of the Simpson family would vote.

Turns out I need to improve my model a little (as the social scientists say) regarding the Homer demographic. I predicted that he would be a Giuliani Republican, but in fact, according to last night's episode, he's a non-voter:

Homer: "I don't vote! The polling place is up a hill, and I never make it!"

I should add that I speculated that Homer probably voted Republican because he's an idiot, and because he's completely out of touch with his own best interests. In hindsight, I believe this was unfair comment, and I retract the part about him being an idiot as proof of his Republicanism. In fact, it's merely the misunderstanding of his own interests that would qualify him as a Republican. Everyone at p3 deeply, deeply regrets the remark.

Finally, before leaving "The Simpsons" altogether, if you didn't see the "Iraq War" segment on last night's episode, here's the punch line, contained in the last 50 seconds of the story. If you're curious, check it out now, before the Fox copyright attorneys force YouTube to take it down.