Presidential power dive

Tom Tomorrow has charted approval and disapproval ratings for Nixon and Bush, month by month, at comparable points during their presidencies. They're locked in a Wile E. Coyote-esque dive, although we know the polls for Nixon ended abruptly in August 1974, while Bush has 986 more days (in theory, at least) to plumb the sociometric depths.

As TT reminds us, the amazing thing about this accomplishment is that Bush has managed to sink this low without the "benefit" of bipartisan congressional hearings on his conduct. In fact, he's had the GOP-controlled Congress covering his back at every turn. No one to blame here but himself (exactly the sort of situation he resents).

Josh Marshall points out that, when Bush's numbers are this low (within the margin of error of breaking the 30% barrier), it's just a matter of time now until some poll results put his approval rating at 28% or 29%. (This would be the statistical equivalent of the distant sound of Wile E. hitting the canyon floor hundreds of feet below, with only the tiny cloud of dust visible from the cliff top.)

But, as Marshall notes, Bush will have to work harder for every percentage point he drops from now on, because he's already plummeted through the thin air of moderates, undecideds, and converts, and now he's hit the hard granite of his base:

Mind you, I'm not saying that the president's popularity will continue to fall into the 20s. The continuing descent is something like a mathematical limit. Each point lower digs deeper into the base of truly committed partisans and unquestioning hacks. So knocking off each new point on the way down requires ever greater displays of incompetence, failure and general infamy.

And yet (here's a sentence I don't often utter!), Bush may be just the man for the job. Chill the champagne and polish the stemware; that 20-something number is just a matter of time now.

(Thanks to Nick at DL for sending me the charts.)